View Full Version : Anyone watching derren brown.....
He reckons he gonna predict the national lottery numbers in this one, any channel four channel now....
vxr_racing_2008
09-09-09, 10:40 PM
:d im watching
brainsnova
09-09-09, 10:42 PM
i cant be arsed with him.
let_nova
09-09-09, 10:44 PM
absolute bull****
floydy13
09-09-09, 10:44 PM
i want to know how!
brainsnova
09-09-09, 10:47 PM
50p for all the jackpot winners lol
DAFTJOHN
09-09-09, 10:47 PM
so do I - need to watch on Friday at 9....
I aint going to sleep now thinking how that was done? I thought he was going to pick numbers that were the most probable but that would be fairly simple I guess as you just need to see what numbers come up the most from the 49 (or whatever it is) but to get all 5???
Hmmm, is it me or did he only show the number after he had chance to scribble them down as they were read, and yes i channel hopped in order to check, but he said he would explain on his show on friday, i bet the draw was made last night so he could get a bit of publicity for the flagging lottery!
Probability
That's exactly it, I saw something years ago about the numbers that came out the most.
vxr_racing_2008
09-09-09, 10:49 PM
wonder if he bought a lottery ticket with those numbers on.......lol
novaboyopr
09-09-09, 10:49 PM
Hmmm, is it me or did he only show the number after he had chance to scribble them down as they were read, and yes i channel hopped in order to check, but he said he would explain on his show on friday, i bet the draw was made last night so he could get a bit of publicity for the flagging lottery!
true but i didnt se him play with the balls he just turned them round. watched his shows before and leaves me head f+cked for ages. lol
Hmmm, is it me or did he only show the number after he had chance to scribble them down as they were read, and yes i channel hopped in order to check, but he said he would explain on his show on friday, i bet the draw was made last night so he could get a bit of publicity for the flagging lottery!
Midweek draw is a wednesday, its done live.
It doesn't surprise me he spent a year studying this (which, tbh is a relatively short time). And it is entirely possible to predict them, but to get all 5 is... hmm
[edit] Bear in mind this is a man that can memorize cards whilst playing multi-deck Poker.
DAFTJOHN
09-09-09, 10:51 PM
That's exactly it, I saw something years ago about the numbers that came out the most.
that works to a point, like it's probable I'm going to take a piss tomorrow but to guess the exact times is a bit harder:confused:
Midweek draw is a wednesday, its done live.
It doesn't surprise me he spent a year studying this (which, tbh is a relatively short time). And it is entirely possible to predict them, but to get all 5 is... hmm
[edit] Bear in mind this is a man that can memorize cards whilst playing multi-deck Poker.
In all fairness he is a clever mofo, and i are to be a sheep and will be watching the show on friday lol
novaboyopr
09-09-09, 10:53 PM
wonder how many people will do the lottery after friday lol
lol. i have met him and seen him live 3 times and he still confusses me..
and to the probability thing, he could never predict the lottery of probability. to many combination. otherwise everyone would be doing it,
he must have a system which everyone cant do, otherwise the national lottery wouldn't let it out lol.
and he is banned from every casino in lasvegas for the reason jack mentioned above.
NovaBoi92
09-09-09, 10:59 PM
Probably was probability as all you are saying, because he did seem really really happy that he was right - like he wasnt sure he was going to be
novaboyopr
09-09-09, 11:01 PM
or he just won lol
it was 6 he predicted jack
The unsure-ness doesn't convince me, its part of his act.
and to the probability thing, he could never predict the lottery of probability. to many combination. otherwise everyone would be doing it,
he must have a system which everyone cant do, otherwise the national lottery wouldn't let it out lol.
and he is banned from every casino in lasvegas for the reason jack mentioned above.
lol you say its impossible to predict, yet then admit he can run predictions in casinos?
It is entirely possible to predict, but you would need a massive equation to do it. And to get all 5 numbers would be tricky.
DAFTJOHN
09-09-09, 11:07 PM
I've just watched it back again and noticed that he was wearing a Casio Calculator watch on his wrist - it all becomes clear now.... lol
The unsure-ness doesn't convince me, its part of his act.
lol you say its impossible to predict, yet then admit he can run predictions in casinos?
It is entirely possible to predict, but you would need a massive equation to do it. And to get all 5 numbers would be tricky.
i said it would be very hard to predict something from probability on that scale. which IMO is alot bigger then a pack of cards,
pack of cards = 52 cards. made up of 4 suits of 13
lottery = like 6 sets of colour maybe, and 50ish balls on each set.
so to card count would be alot "easier" then predicting the lottery.
it was 6 he predicted jack
I thought he only got 5? As he kept banging on about not being bothered by the bonus ball
Yeah thats the thing he kept telling us he wasnt bothered by it, but thats how he makes you forget stuff by keeping it in front of you so your mind discounts it, hmmm.....
i said it would be very hard to predict something from probability on that scale. which IMO is alot bigger then a pack of cards,
pack of cards = 52 cards. made up of 4 suits of 13
lottery = like 6 sets of colour maybe, and 50ish balls on each set.
so to card count would be alot "easier" then predicting the lottery.
Nope, the probability of predicting the lottery numbers would be a damned sight easier than predicting multi-deck poker cards. Only one set of balls, 1-49 - the colours only differentiate each set of 10.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHZ2mQczkcg
video of the lottery for anyone who missed it
Nope, the probability of predicting the lottery numbers would be a damned sight easier than predicting multi-deck poker cards. Only one set of balls, 1-49 - the colours only differentiate each set of 10.
ok jack, i agree now.
but still. to get the balls right, is mental
i await until friday :d
MattBrown
09-09-09, 11:35 PM
Bullsheet!
Camera tricks, freeze half the screen, hense the camera was "Dead still"
Then the balls were changed for order etc, then unfroze the left half of the screen to resume live transmittion!
Its all trickery of the mind, and if it was to go tits up, they have that bell stood there with his finger in his bottom, keeping everyone distracted from the hash they made!
Camera tricks, freeze half the screen, hense the camera was "Dead still"
Fail, the camera was moving. Even I thought to myself "why didn't they use a steadycam" lol
well he did say, there are two cameras in the room and it only showed the other one at the start.. never later on
the freeze trick could be possible. but i doubt it
brainsnova
09-09-09, 11:44 PM
its a trick not magic lol
well he did say, there are two cameras in the room and it only showed the other one at the start.. never later on
the freeze trick could be possible. but i doubt it
the angles would be wrong, they'd need to freeze frame half of one camera. Its technically possible, but as said I noticed the camera moving whilst o9n a steady shot so you would almost certainly notice when the "frozen" side became unstuck
Its not a trick, its not magic, its just logic.
NovaBoi92
09-09-09, 11:49 PM
i dont know if anybody was watching... but he memorised the a-z!? LOL
i dont know if anybody was watching... but he memorised the a-z!? LOL
Yeah I watched that, that man is a legend.
NovaBoi92
10-09-09, 12:03 AM
lol he is - i recorded it, its just finished where he predicted (was going to say guessed.... :-P) about shepherds bush green bit. amazing lol i dont know if anybody else noticed aswell, but the word 'forget' kept flashing up quickly
Yeah I noticed forget too and it was part of his plan to make the audience forget the show when they left the building. It worked.
lol i dont know if anybody else noticed aswell, but the word 'forget' kept flashing up quickly
Watch any of his shows (i assume, as ive only ever watched two and the same happened on each) he uses subliminal imagery throughout the show using the word 'forget' or some other keyword so when the audience come out they cannot remember the show:thumb:
may i just say, if ya watch the advert for it, where he walks backwards, all the lotto numbers are in it, on stuff, like the lamp post at the crossing, next to him. it seriously freaked me out...
Midweek draw is a wednesday, its done live.
It doesn't surprise me he spent a year studying this (which, tbh is a relatively short time). And it is entirely possible to predict them, but to get all 5 is... hmm
[edit] Bear in mind this is a man that can memorize cards whilst playing multi-deck Poker.
To predict lottery numbers though you'd have to model the physics of the balls bouncing around perfectly, that includes spin, coefficients of friction taking into account dust etc... technically impossible.
Memorising cards is a case of card goes in card. card works its way to the top, card comes out. Not easy but certainly not physical modelling way more advanced than stuff F1 teams would drool at... and in his head too lol
Jon_nova1
10-09-09, 12:55 AM
I'm still confused as hell how he managed to make the advert, i thought maybe he was talking backwards, but stuff still doesn't add up
BUT the reason he said he's not bothered about the bonus ball was because the probability was far too great, the last number can't be put in any particular order, if it was 6 straight numbers he would have got it
:tard:
To predict lottery numbers though you'd have to model the physics of the balls bouncing around perfectly, that includes spin, coefficients of friction taking into account dust etc... technically impossible.
Memorising cards is a case of card goes in card. card works its way to the top, card comes out. Not easy but certainly not physical modelling way more advanced than stuff F1 teams would drool at... and in his head too lol
No, you're thinking of the physics of the balls, I'm talking about the probability etc. But I see your point.
One thing does stick in my head which doesn't make sense though... He said that the BBC wouldn't allow him to reveal the numbers before the actual draw for legal reasons, i.e. the BBC has the rights to broadcast the winning numbers first. Yet his numbers were a prediction, there's no guarantee they would be right. So why was he not allowed to show them before the draw? Unless someone KNEW they were the winning numbers, which would have then gone against the legalities of it...
DAFTJOHN
10-09-09, 09:06 AM
I'm still confused as hell how he managed to make the advert, i thought maybe he was talking backwards, but stuff still doesn't add up
BUT the reason he said he's not bothered about the bonus ball was because the probability was far too great, the last number can't be put in any particular order, if it was 6 straight numbers he would have got it
I can't see the numbers in the advert, there are numbers but not the correct ones
NovaBoi92
10-09-09, 11:30 AM
:tard:
No, you're thinking of the physics of the balls, I'm talking about the probability etc. But I see your point.
One thing does stick in my head which doesn't make sense though... He said that the BBC wouldn't allow him to reveal the numbers before the actual draw for legal reasons, i.e. the BBC has the rights to broadcast the winning numbers first. Yet his numbers were a prediction, there's no guarantee they would be right. So why was he not allowed to show them before the draw? Unless someone KNEW they were the winning numbers, which would have then gone against the legalities of it...
because someone might have been in a shop, waiting for him to say it and write it down on a lottery ticket!! lol :tard: :thumb:
No, you're thinking of the physics of the balls, I'm talking about the probability etc. But I see your point.
But the probability technically is an equal 1 in 49 for every ball, even if you take into account which have been drawn more, it's gonna be too close to make an accurate prediction, and even then theres no guarantee that the 1 in a hundred chance ball makes it out.
because someone might have been in a shop, waiting for him to say it and write it down on a lottery ticket!! lol :tard: :thumb:
But if it's a prediction who cares.
Next weeks are 7, 14, 28, 30, 36 and the bonus is 12 btw... have fun.
Hope I don't get sued :(
However if he had the actual correct numbers, it'd be an issue lol
NovaBoi92
10-09-09, 11:49 AM
But if it's a prediction who cares.
Next weeks are 7, 14, 28, 30, 36 and the bonus is 12 btw... have fun.
Hope I don't get sued :(
However if he had the actual correct numbers, it'd be an issue lol
its a prediction by derren brown. so people will obviously pick the numbers that he would predict!
But the probability technically is an equal 1 in 49 for every ball
No, its 1 in 49, then 1 in 48, then 1 in 47 etc. As he didn't predict the sequence, just the numbers. Getting all 5 correct is a 1 in however many million chance though lol
Be interesting to see the program on Friday though (which I think is probably his main aim!).
1 in 14.something million lol My parents didn't like my explanation of why I don't buy tickets, it started with... "do you know what your chances of winning are?" :p
I'll be watching it friday too, although not sure if I'll be convinced, most of his other explanations of his tricks are a little bit dubious imo.
There is no way you could predict the movement of the balls - The Possibilities are completely uncomprehendable, there are TOO many factors.
Even predicting the probability of numbers coming out is rediculous... I talked to my brother about it, whom is basically a Rocket scientist in simplistic terms - He still finds it unbelievable . I'm definetly tuning in to see his explanation; whatever it is, he's a talented little ****.
the only way is trickery. quite how he managed it is beyond me but then thats why he does it and not me
the only way is trickery. quite how he managed it is beyond me but then thats why he does it and not me
I wouldn't put yourself down. Predicting the lottery via probability is beyond human capacity.
Southie
10-09-09, 12:29 PM
Maths and luck.
CLICKY (http://www.v-w-d.co.uk/chances-of-winning-the-lottery.htm)
NovaBoi92
10-09-09, 12:29 PM
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/article.html?How_did_Derren_Brown_predict_the_winn ing_lottery_numbers?&in_article_id=735342&in_page_id=34
i agree, the only way has to be trickery. because there cant be any flaws in the system, because A the national lottery wouldnt let it go live lol. B it would no longer be fair to all players.
what type of trickery is it. now that is beond me. as mentioned camera tricks maybe. if so then why did it take him a year...
i personally think.
that the numbers were back to front. and he filmed every combination of turning the numbers around.
quite how, i dont know lol
NovaBoi92
10-09-09, 12:34 PM
have a look at that link i posted, they picked up on a few little things in the video
if it was camera tricks why did it take him a year to come up with it. then again that could easily be a lie
But working on the fact that the lottery is as bent as a nine bob note and they will know the numbers that are going to come out of every draw whats to say they didnt simply tell him so that they could get a damn good publicity stunt out of it?
Maths and luck.
CLICKY (http://www.v-w-d.co.uk/chances-of-winning-the-lottery.htm)
More than just luck !
But working on the fact that the lottery is as bent as a nine bob note and they will know the numbers that are going to come out of every draw whats to say they didnt simply tell him so that they could get a damn good publicity stunt out of it?
They can't... Mapping the movement of the balls is nearly impossible. The amount of factors and outcomes is unfeasable.
They can't... Mapping the movement of the balls is nearly impossible. The amount of factors and outcomes is unfeasable.
Seriously? There are a million and one ways of rigging those balls and machine.
Seriously, you'd have a hard time Acuratly mapping the predicted bounce of a single golf ball on a fixed surface considering variables and factors.
Let alone 49 Balls co-existing inside an atmosphere in constant flux. The balls are different every time, they're ordered differently, released differently. If you think about it, the weight distribution of the ball is probably effected by the ink/print on it, let alone the tolerances to start off with.
Seriously, you'd have a hard time Acuratly mapping the predicted bounce of a single golf ball on a fixed surface considering variables and factors.
Let alone 49 Balls co-existing inside an atmosphere in constant flux. The balls are different every time, they're ordered differently, released differently. If you think about it, the weight distribution of the ball is probably effected by the ink/print on it, let alone the tolerances to start off with.
yeh, you would not be able to work out the path of every ball it would be impossible. stupid amounts of possibilities.
But thats assuming its a even playing field, every ball is the same and nothing is biased in any way. If you were engineering the game from the start there are lots of ways you could influence things.
It may be random, I may be talking bollocks lol, just find it very odd that there havent been more random draw combinations, repeat draws and they manage a rollover every bank holiday wkend etc etc
Southie
10-09-09, 01:01 PM
Roll up roll up, lets see who's a winner!!! lol
http://www.3dsmaxresources.com/uploaded_img/so478lottery.gif
I don't go for the "camera split/third person switching the balls" technique. A youpleb video isn't really clear enough to see movement of the balls, as said previously the camera was moving around too much for them to split the screen. Plus there's the second camera - admittedly we didn't see any footage from that, but if they chopped between cameras they might have missed some of the live lottery feed and/or been accused of splicing shots together.
hmm. Viewing figures for friday will be high methinks lol
Mind you, I'm quite interested in seeing the other 3 "events" too.
But thats assuming its a even playing field, every ball is the same and nothing is biased in any way. If you were engineering the game from the start there are lots of ways you could influence things.
It may be random, I may be talking bollocks lol, just find it very odd that there havent been more random draw combinations, repeat draws etc etc
Right. Just think about the maths needed to 100% accurately map the ending trajectories of two rotating balls, hitting each other from 2 set initial trajectories.
And i mean accurately, the balls needs to be exactly in the right place when that little hole opens.
Then think how many times that instance occurs , then how many times a ball hits a blade/side. from any chain of collisions/blade hits/side hits.
By all means, build a computer simulation - i will be your gimp for ever.
Edit - If what your saying is true. If you used the same balls, machine e.t.c released in the same order, time sequence and the winning balls were selected at precisely the same time... it would be the same 6 numbers every single time. Fact is, it wouldn't because there are infinite factors governing this, disregarding the basics.
There was no camera trickery, he did it and he is going to tell us tomorrow how he did it, if it was camera trickery I will eat my snots.
NovaBoi92
10-09-09, 01:21 PM
i think derren brown is above camera trickery, i dont think that's his 'thing' too simple if you see what im getting at
Right. Just think about the maths needed to 100% accurately map the ending trajectories of two rotating balls, hitting each other from 2 set initial trajectories.
And i mean accurately, the balls needs to be exactly in the right place when that little hole opens.
Then think how many times that instance occurs , then how many times a ball hits a blade/side. from any chain of collisions/blade hits/side hits.
By all means, build a computer simulation - i will be your gimp for ever.
Edit - If what your saying is true. If you used the same balls, machine e.t.c released in the same order, time sequence and the winning balls were selected at precisely the same time... it would be the same 6 numbers every single time. Fact is, it wouldn't because there are infinite factors governing this, disregarding the basics.
you dont have to map trajectories, predict probabilities or anything like that. i'm talking about rigging the balls/machine so that the ball you want is the ball that comes out. electric/electrostatic charges, magnetising, different friction coatings on the balls, even microscopically different sized balls are all pretty basic things you could use to influence this. im sure someone a lot cleverer than me could make a pretty foolproof system for something like this. maybe not. who knows - thats part of the fun.....
Yeah, your just thinking about the ball....
That ball still gets ****ted around in a spinning drum for 30 seconds, ends up in a pile of balls in the bottom and comes out of a hole. Of course you'd have to map where every ball would be at every given moment in time. Even if it was magnetised it'd still be hitting other balls, scoops and sides at random trajectories.
Maybe every ball is an OLED screen haha
It's nigh on impossible to beable to say a ball is DEFINETLY going to come out. That's why it's probability, even then the probability is unimaginable.
Of course you'd have to map where every ball would be at every given moment in time.
Why? who gives a monkeys where the other balls are - u only need to know that 1 of 6 is in the right place, the rest can be anywhere. The order they come out doesnt matter, only that they do. Pulling 6 specific balls out of a pool of them isnt difficult.
The balls can't move through each other..... Of course it matters where the other 48 are.
The balls can't move through each other.....
No, that would be silly.... Being as the machine is constantly moving they dont have to.
For arguments sake lets say a simple, crude (and would be obvious so must be discounted) idea you magnetised the surface of the balls to come out and used some mechanisim to prevent any that werent from stopping near the draw shoot (maybe electronic magnets, compressed air jet, whatever)?
You honestly saying you can think of no possible way in which the lottery could be rigged? Im not clever enough to work it but im sure it could be done....
Probability is the entire basis of the game.
It creates the odds, it makes them money... That's it.
I'm with prey on this one, the lottery could be rigged some how there is a few ways it could be done although I don't think it is, it could be.
Yeah it could be, anything is possible.... but you seriously think a game with such immense odds needs to be rigged !?
That's why they factored 49 balls into it, rather than 12.
And, with the setup the way it is, i really can't see how it would be possible without some really elaborate scheme.
Like I said, I don't beleive it is rigged but as we agree, they could rig it, it could even be rigged, but no I don't think it is.
Yeah, you still have the fact that you can't map the motion of the balls... pretty much ruling out fixing the balls in terms of how they come to fall at the chute.
A few years ago, some guys were caught in Las Vegas with a set up including a computer that allowed to them place bets (on that spinny wheel thing with the little white ball) and the equipment (hidden of course) worked out what number the ball was going to land on winning them lots of money, til they got caught.
If someone can do that with 1 ball it could be done with 49, just on a much larger scale and the computer would need to be alot better.
Roulette is a very easy game to fix - as you say, only one ball to worry about.
Im not sayings it definately is fixed, just it could be and things like they always have a rollover on bank holidays etc is very convienient - maybe im way too cynical!
hc coupe
10-09-09, 04:26 PM
I can't fathom how someone can judge/predict/know something that is random... surely its impossible to know what numbers will come out based upon old lottery trends...all the balls have the same probability of coming out.I understand that some have come out more than others however they still have the same odds every time of coming out .
49 balls in a bag..what's the odds when you pull One out its going to be a Seven.......that's my thoughts.
Although I hope there was/is a system to work out the lottery.....and wasn't just a camera trick, just can't see it happening
loggyboy
10-09-09, 04:37 PM
My 2p:
Firstly, the lottery wasn’t fixed, although i don’t doubt there is a slimmest possibility it could be fixed, there is an even slimmer possibility you could do it and not get caught!
2ndly, it is virtually impossible to predict the lottery (with anywhere near enough accuracy), as it is just that a lottery. Look the word up!
So if there’s virtually no chance the result was fixed, and it’s virtually impossible to predict something that has over 13million to 1 odds, then it leaves only one possibility, it must have been a ‘trick’.
I firmly believe if he could genuinely predict it, he would have been doing it regularly under the radar for as long as he knew he could, earning a stupid amount of money instead of trying to earn a living from pretending he can predict it.
^ Thing is, win the lottery once - you're lucky. Win twice, you're very lucky. Win three times, you're cheating. He probably earns more money and publicity (and enjoyment!) doing his current line of "work" than he does just by using his skills to win money.
If someone can do that with 1 ball it could be done with 49, just on a much larger scale and the computer would need to be alot better.
You would need a massive amount of computing power to do it, far beyond anything we have today.
Its a bit like the old "if you sit a monkey at a typewriter for long enough, eventually it will write shakespear" - there's a computer simulation that is currently churning that away at the moment. Its simulated something like a few million years worth of monkeys typing away and so far has only come up with the first 15 letters of Hamlet or something.
I'm skeptical he predicted the numbers, even with a lot of prior work. I also don't believe he used simple camera trickery, he doesn't do "tricks" - but he IS a master or suggestion, misdirection, probability and memory.
RJ you cannot predict a random event. It dosen't matter how much computing power you have. Now stop being simple.
I know exactly how he did it. However the answer is very complicated and involes the space time continuum, flux capacitors and a small bar of soap.
i need soap......
i think he has nuclear farts, and it makes the world rotate backwards, thus turning time back, so he can alter his balls. and ill bet he does that singing "if i could turn back time....." the dodgy git. now, whos for cheezy chips?
It is impossibe to predict the numbers. Simples. Derren predicted certain numbers to come out, and he got all 6. Statistically I have the same chance of getting it right if I went to the post office and layed a quid on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 to come out! No one would ever buy a lottery ticket with those numbers on, but you have just as much chance of that as you do with your regular numbers. That gives you some idea of the chances of him actually predicting them and getting it 100%.
Jack, no computer in the universe can predict a random selection. Thats like building a computer that will predict when I will next get an itch on my head from the other side of the planet. It has no input data to use, therefore no calculations can be made. Even by studying every draw since they began, the chances of it predicting the next numbers are still the same as the draw being 1 to 6!
Camera tricks. Not a chance, Derran doesnt use them, and he never will. Ive been a massive fan ever since he appeared. Some of his tricks are simple, some are unbelievable, but he never uses camera trickery. Going back to the argument I was having with someone about future tellers etc. Derran is living proof you can read someone like a book without them ever saying a word. He's just very very good at what he does, and why i will never go to a fortune teller lol
It was an illusion no different to when Mr Coperfield walked through the great wall of china. And if he's genuinely going to tell us how he did it, I cant wait to find out lol But I imagine he will just skirt the subject.
Just the fact that he has memorised every fecking grid reference and whats in them in the greater london AtoZ gives you an idea of how big his brain is!
It is impossibe to predict the numbers. Simples. Derren predicted certain numbers to come out, and he got all 6. Statistically I have the same chance of getting it right if I went to the post office and layed a quid on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 to come out! No one would ever buy a lottery ticket with those numbers on, but you have just as much chance of that as you do with your regular numbers. That gives you some idea of the chances of him actually predicting them and getting it 100%.
Jack, no computer in the universe can predict a random selection. Thats like building a computer that will predict when I will next get an itch on my head from the other side of the planet. It has no input data to use, therefore no calculations can be made. Even by studying every draw since they began, the chances of it predicting the next numbers are still the same as the draw being 1 to 6!
Some of the maths behind probability is literally uncomprehendable unless you have the brain of a mathetmatician. There is probably some way of applying a calculation to it, but i doubt derren brown is capable of it.
Thats just it, there isn't lol. There is an equal chance of every 6 digit number possible coming out of the machine. Hence 'random'. You can't apply an equation to a random occurence no matter how massive your brain is.
As I said, there is just as much chance of building an equation to predict when i will next get shat on by a starling. Its not going to happen. (the prediction, not the starling poo lol)
General Lee
11-09-09, 09:46 AM
The sun nicked png's idea.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/2631919/Secret-of-Derrens-Lottery-plottery.html
Hahah at Paul Daniels
Paul claimed there were 99 ways to perform the illusion, but added: "I'll never give away another professional's secrets."
So, basically... Paul Daniels doesn't have a clue ?
Paul Daniels is too busy making rabbits come out of Debbie McGee's ass lol
As I said, there is just as much chance of building an equation to predict when i will next get shat on by a starling. Its not going to happen. (the prediction, not the starling poo lol)
^ thats actually comparitively easy to predict, but not the same as predicting balls falling from a machine.
The sun nicked png's idea.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/2631919/Secret-of-Derrens-Lottery-plottery.html
I'm still not convinced of the split screen theory, the camera moves around too much so it would be difficult to sync the shots (although why the camera was so wobbly is a bit suspect), plus the second camera would show any foul play on the balls. Plus, it would be a bit of a cop out on Derren's part.
I may retract the above statement after the show tomorrow lol
loggyboy
11-09-09, 12:41 PM
^ Thing is, win the lottery once - you're lucky. Win twice, you're very lucky. Win three times, you're cheating.
But its not possible to cheat at the lottery, I cant see how if you kept winning they woould be able to stop you from claiming the prize. If they could prove he was cheating then they would be admitting to a failing in their in security.
My inference was that it would have somehow been rigged, or at least thats surely what general opinion would be
I love everyones assumption that the lottery is a fair & random event to start with...... why is it that the draw takes place at least 30 mins after the ticket sales have finished.... if it was random, then you could stop them at the moment that the balls drop.
I'm still not convinced of the split screen theory, the camera moves around too much so it would be difficult to sync the shots (although why the camera was so wobbly is a bit suspect), plus the second camera would show any foul play on the balls. Plus, it would be a bit of a cop out on Derren's part.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqAt2akPHJ8
quite easy really
to quote mr P T Barnum: you can fool all of the people some of the time & some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of them all of the time
So basically he got all the way to the end and said haha tricked you and like I'd tell you how? lol
Jon_nova1
11-09-09, 10:13 PM
going to whoever mentioned using numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, lots do it, works out if they got all the number they'd come out with £70ish each lol
no, he told us how he did it, and said he couldn't get the weighted balls in the machine anyway, and never had 8 sets made up.
theres only one way to find out, im sure theres more than 24 of us here ;)
the random numbers thing is rubbish ;p
The ox weight works because it's working towards an average, you wouldn't guess it weighs 1kg or 12 tonnes would you? if you take an average from enough people on lottery numbers it'd be 24.5
kelbelle
11-09-09, 10:47 PM
You wouldnt average out at 24.5 at all, thats not how is works
im not sure how he did it but until someone comes up with a better explanation Im inclined to go with Derren!
I saw him live front row and had a table with a banana on it right in front of my face and failed to notice a man dressed as a gorilla come and take the banana from right in front of me because he was distracting me. The man is a genius and above camera tricks.
if enough people took a random choice of a number between 1 and 49 they'd work out exactly in the middle, which actually you're right discounting 0 works out at 25.5, my mistake lol
i think the predicting numbers thing is rubbish as there is no link between the numbers he is prediciting and the numbers coming out of the machine.
i still dont know how he did it lol
Next weeks will be interesting, like to see if it actually works ;p
Jon_nova1
11-09-09, 11:50 PM
So do you have 24 people to pick numbers?
of course, on a big enough scale the average will be 25.5, surely around the same amount of people would be needed as the odds on the lottery?
So do you have 24 people to pick numbers?
of course, on a big enough scale the average will be 25.5, surely around the same amount of people would be needed as the odds on the lottery?
yeah but my point is people picking numbers and taking an average is nearly as random as the lottery itself, except it tends towards 25.5 as the group gets larger. i.e 24 people picking numbers does not net you a few hundred thou each
He loves a mind feck doesnt he. He ends the show basically saying he rigged it, event though he said he didn't. It's classic missdirection.
Its perfectly feasable that he may have done. Im pretty sure Camelot would be happy to take a big wad of cash from Channel 4 to bung some heavy balls in the machine provided it was done proffessionally, in secret, and only Derran knew the numbers. Its a rollover on Sat so we can assume no one won using those numbers. Im pretty sure if the truth got out that they actually DID rig the lottery, there would be an epic sh1tstorm, but that only leans towards the speculation of just how much money opened camelots legs, if it did happen, which of course they say it didn't.
Lets face it, thats really the only way he could have done it in reality, and by saying it all at the end, it makes you doubt that he did, but then you think he could have. Its missdirection, and what he is best at.
I doubt he rigged it tbh, it's just a massively overhyped sleight of hand trick somewhere, which he somehow turned into 2 shows and gained lots of ratings for C4. Has all the classic traits, i.e the numbers weren't revealed until after everyone had seen them, if you could actually predict it you'd say 15 mins before the draw, when no one can get tickets but it proves you're right.
I still don't know how he did it though so all respect for him for being a great illusionist, just don't think it deserved quite the amount of time it got given.
Next weeks actually looks interesting, I shall be attempting not to be glued to my seat lol
One of the best tricks he's done that I've seen that he actually revealed was guessing correctly 7 horse racing winners in a row. How he did it was to send these predictions to a total of around 350 people, every one different to cover every possibility, and in the end at the last 7 he just went to whoever won to film the last scene lol
I quite like 'magic' tricks and other such sleight-of-hand antics but this has been (all but) debunked as a camera trick which leaves a sour taste in ones mouth*. If the viewer i.e. me has been lead/tricked/duped then fair game but when the viewer is 'beaten' by technology they couldn't possibly beat then it's a bit of a wheeze IMO.
*like mayonnaise
ps. 'deep maths'/'deeper maths'? Must be an anagram for 'you are all ****s' or something.
lol, i basically agrees with what lee says.
and just to say, the one rule of a magician is not to reveal his tricks....
you might not class his as a magician tho...
If he did rig the machine in the way he suggested he didn't lol then he still wouldn't know what order the balls would come out. 6 heavier balls could still come out in any order.
The man is a genius, I knew after the explanation he'd mess with everyone's head - the whole point of the show to misdirect :)
He's full of ****. Chris and I tried the coin flipping thing and it failed as expected.
Oh and if I had the cheque for 500,000 in my pocket and then found out that I couldn't have won it I think I may have just stamped on that fecking mouse.
Fun TV though.
Its perfectly feasable that he may have done. Im pretty sure Camelot would be happy to take a big wad of cash from Channel 4 to bung some heavy balls in the machine provided it was done proffessionally, in secret, and only Derran knew the numbers. Its a rollover on Sat so we can assume no one won using those numbers. Im pretty sure if the truth got out that they actually DID rig the lottery, there would be an epic sh1tstorm, but that only leans towards the speculation of just how much money opened camelots legs, if it did happen, which of course they say it didn't.
I'm not sure really. They'd be accepting what is essentially a bribe to rig the lottery and if found to be true would get lynched for it. Whilst nobody profited from the win - the fact that Derren wasn't allowed to buy a ticket OR tell anyone his numbers - doesn't matter, the conspiracy was still premeditated. Not sure how that would play out in a court though.
[edit] Having said that, if it was proven that he DID right the lottery using weighted balls, it proves that it CAN be rigged for profit, and is possible to do so. Camelot would be feeling extremely red faced right now, and Derren could probably be prosecuted (assuming he did it without their knowledge)
and just to say, the one rule of a magician is not to reveal his tricks....
you might not class his as a magician tho...
He's not, he admits that himself - he refused an invitation into the magic circle for that reason.
If he did rig the machine in the way he suggested he didn't lol then he still wouldn't know what order the balls would come out. 6 heavier balls could still come out in any order.
The order doesn't matter, its the actual balls that he predicted. Even with the weighted balls, it would be damned hard to predict the actual output order (unless they were progressively weighted). TBH I still think even if they were weighted, there's the chance that a "normal" ball might get in the way and be drawn, but I guess thats a risk you take.
[edit] His "I didn't rig the lottery, but if I had, this is how I would have done it" argument is tosh. If I went to the FBI and said "I didn't kill Michael Jackson, but if I did, this is how I'd do it" then run through a plan of exactly how I'd killed him, I'd be arrested and investigated. If Camelot or whoever wanted to take this further they most certainly could OR they could simply dismiss it by providing evidence of ball security etc.
I'm not sure really. They'd be accepting what is essentially a bribe to rig the lottery and if found to be true would get lynched for it. Whilst nobody profited from the win - the fact that Derren wasn't allowed to buy a ticket OR tell anyone his numbers - doesn't matter, the conspiracy was still premeditated. Not sure how that would play out in a court though.
Television is television at the end of the day, and money talks. Its not like a joe off the steet came to them and bunged them a tenner to rig it for profit. If it was done, it would have been with camelots blessing, with only a select few knowing it was going on, and for a substancial amount of money. If the CEO of camelot agreed to it, how would C4 be prosecuted??
Having said that, if it was proven that he DID right the lottery using weighted balls, it proves that it CAN be rigged for profit, and is possible to do so. Camelot would be feeling extremely red faced right now, and Derren could probably be prosecuted (assuming he did it without their knowledge)
There is no way it would have been rigged by C4 without Camelot knowing about it. The fact Derran showed how he 'would' have done it prooves that. if it was done without their knowledge, I guarantee it would never have been shown.
The order doesn't matter, its the actual balls that he predicted. Even with the weighted balls, it would be damned hard to predict the actual output order (unless they were progressively weighted). TBH I still think even if they were weighted, there's the chance that a "normal" ball might get in the way and be drawn, but I guess thats a risk you take.
Deran said himself he was aiming for 5 balls. Probably to cover this exact scenario ;)
His "I didn't rig the lottery, but if I had, this is how I would have done it" argument is tosh. If I went to the FBI and said "I didn't kill Michael Jackson, but if I did, this is how I'd do it" then run through a plan of exactly how I'd killed him, I'd be arrested and investigated. If Camelot or whoever wanted to take this further they most certainly could OR they could simply dismiss it by providing evidence of ball security etc.
As I said, proof that if it WAS rigged, Camelot knew about it
You phail at quoting lol
That took 4 edits to get right lol
And you still stole my font lol
Derren would/could be implicated in any prosecution, saying he wouldn't is like saying the guys who helped Guy Fawkes shouldn't have been charged.
People have been charged (albeit in America, see "Triple Six Fix") for rigging lottery results by using weighted balls. I would imagine if Camelot were in on it, it would seriously undermine the lottery for a lot of people; if they weren't in on it, it shows their security is lax and again undermines the lottery.
Personally, I think the piece at the end was just stuck in to put the cat amongst the pigeons.
[edit] The rest of the turd in that show was blatantly rigged. Never seen so much hammy acting from supposed "random people" before in my life lol
And you still stole my font lol
Derren would/could be implicated in any prosecution, saying he wouldn't is like saying the guys who helped Guy Fawkes shouldn't have been charged.
People have been charged (albeit in America, see "Triple Six Fix") for rigging lottery results by using weighted balls. I would imagine if Camelot were in on it, it would seriously undermine the lottery for a lot of people; if they weren't in on it, it shows their security is lax and again undermines the lottery.
Personally, I think the piece at the end was just stuck in to put the cat amongst the pigeons.
Absolutely, the last bit was most probably put there for a bit of miss direction :)
The guy fawkes comparison is crap lol.
The guy fawkes comparison is crap lol.
It was the only co-conspirator thing I could come up with at the time lol
It was the only co-conspirator thing I could come up with at the time lol
Yes, but the co-conspiritor wasn't the government itself lol lol
You're saying Derren Brown conspired with Gordon Brown to rig the lottery?! This thread needs
http://firstfriday.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/team-america-michael-moore.jpg
lol
Here's an in-depth (http://poeljames.googlepages.com/HowDerrenDidIt.html) look at the camera freeze theory. Does kinda make sense I suppose.
A good explanation.
If it was camera trickery, im not such the big fan of him that i used to be tbh.
i dont beleave his explanation last night at all
A good explanation.
If it was camera trickery, im not such the big fan of him that i used to be tbh.
Thats what I thought, as its a bit of a cop out. But then if you look at it as his aim was to misdirect people over the method rather than the result, I guess thats no different to his usual tricks, except this time it hasn't really worked. Sure, he got a few million people asking "how?" for as short while, but the half frozen screen theory seems to be accepted as cert now.
Tut, stooping to camera trickery. I was looking forward to his other 3 events, but if they're just going to be shoite filler shows an the end result complete poop then I don't think I'll bother :(
It's all garbage.
Blaine's 'street magic' is first-hand footage woven with rigged footage - you get the rigged lead-up to the real reactions of people - the lead-up is (sometimes but not always) hammed to hell for more effect.
tbh I'm just bitter since Paul Daniels went away and I lost my magic set.
look.... the lottery is not exactly fair.. every time there is a lotto based problem in the news, there is a triple rollover to make sure the public keep buying.
simple trick in my view. split screen, faked wobble, camelot in on it with a time loop delay... the same sort of con has been arround since telegraphs were invented. of course they were in on it.
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